13th Year in Power or downlslide?

 

As BJP attempts an unusual but sombre attempt to celebrate 7 years of Modi government, an offensive narrative is getting created in parallel to analyse and showcase the failures of the Prime Minister.

A natural (or man-made) calamity has put the world leaders in the dock and India is no different,

especially when the population is so high and distressed, opposition finding an issue which is bigger than Rafale and media having an opportunity to get its pound of flesh for all the ignorance it has got since 2014.

With 3 years to go for the Central elections, it’s an open game and not the right time to paint a disaster on the wall for the master strategist Modi. The last 21 years have shown, how the setbacks were converted into opportunities by the Leader. This time too, the quick learner will find his way out of all the difficulties posted unless the opposition or the media can build a narrative and a leader who can take head-on in the Modi territory called as ‘People’.

Every leader has a shelf life, but when it comes to the replacement of any larger than life persona, the alternative needs to be a fresh face, who can cut across party cadre and strike a chord beyond territorial compulsions or preferences.

The downfall for Congress had started way back in the 1990s. A depleted opposition, especially the GOP could never regain its glory even though it can claim it's been out of power for the last 7 years only.

Congress and BJP have enjoyed power through North and West with coalitions across the South. However, with UP gone, it’s going to be a nearly impossible task for Congress to come back to the podium on its own.

Congress as usual is not looking beyond RaGa and the granddaughter has not grasped the pulse of the people. It looks beyond their charisma to pose any challenge to NaMo. 

Uttar Pradesh was always the route to LKM.

Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati got full terms as Chief Ministers of UP. However, instead of growing, they have found themselves more into oblivion than the limelight. With wiped out background, they can at max dream it big to be back as the Leader of the state.

Bengal elections have given new ammunition to media and opposition parties to start a new power struggle for the Centre.

With anti-NaMo agenda and zeal to find a new narrative, only a bunch of leaders stand tall or have an aim beyond state politics.

The top amongst the lot is Naveen Patnaik. An ideal leader, who believes in a federal structure and keeps giving his relentless service to the people of Orissa. With almost 2 decades of unblemished performance and governance, he has the persona to grow beyond state politics. However his reluctance to take sides, being content in Orissa and age not getting any younger, he seems to be on his retirement path in Bhuvaneshwar, albeit till people keep him voting back to power in the State.

Arvind Kejriwal is another intelligent and ambitious politician. However, he seems to be stuck in the media glamour who prefers his paradise and still nurse ambitions for the top role. A leader has to grow beyond his state by vision, political acumen and statesmanship and not by playing to media. He does not seem to enjoy any support outside his cocoon. For sure, the other opposition parties will cut him to size even if he tries to make it big.

Mamatha is the only leader who was successful in the last 7 years to prove a point against Modi on a big landscape. Winning a state as large as Bengal has given her a tremendous head start. However, her last stint at the centre whether NDA or UPA was all about swinging moods. A nation can change its mood but not the leader. With her tantrums on a higher pitch, it will always be difficult for her to hold a coalition together. Instead of soothing down into a stateswoman, she is getting entangled in her image, temper and attitude. The attributes are bound to impact her national ambitions, except for those who build the ‘Defeat Modi’ platform.

This leaves only one leader, the Maratha Strongman Sharad Pawar to be a potential national alternative. However, with the MVA coalition, a three-party jumble will mean his party contesting only 1/3 of Maharashtra Lokasabha seats in 2024. If the parties decide to fight separately, erosion of the party base will impact him higher. With age and no substantial MPs on his side, it will take his across the party skills to fulfil life long dream of being an incumbent of LKM.

2024 looks tough for NaMo, but with the opposition not learning its lessons from history and the country not willing for 3rd Front fiasco after VP Singh, Gujral and Devegowda failures, it is bound to be a challenge for the opposition. Hopefully, there won't be any repeat of Charan Singhs and Chandrashekhar's who's ambitions stood above the cause of the nation.

It now depends to be seen how NaMo manages the damage(image) control and if the opposition can find a new national hero ready to take on iconic Modi. Time is sleeping out of hands for those in and out of power for sure.

On a lighter side, the number 13 is proving to be bête noire for the BJP once again. Vajpayee Government lasted for 13 days and then 13 months.

This is the 13th year of BJP in the power😜

Disclaimer: The article is a self-analysis of the current political situation and does not affiliate with any political party or a forum.

Image Courtesy: Internet 

Nextgen BJP ! Who’s the future?

 

She was in love with him but not sure about his future and asked, “What should  I tell my father about your future plan?”

He said, “Tell him, I will be the Chief Minister of Assam.”

This must not be an ordinary person, isn’t it? And he proved himself after 30 years to take oath as 15th CM of Assam, thy name is Himanta Biswa Sarma.

A staunch congressman, getting hurt by party for ignoring his natural claim to become the CM and feeling humiliated when the party’s top leader ignored him to play with his dog made him leave the Congress (not to look back at 10, Janpath) and landed himself at BJP headquarters. He waited patiently for 5 years before rightfully getting coronated as the new Chief Minister.

A man so focused and determined, am sure will have foresight far more than the CM chair.

After NaMo tsunami of 2014 and 2019, the second rung leaders of the BJP started establishing themselves. The future of the party looked secured in the ever dependable Amit Shah, maverick Yogi and an able administrator Fadnavis. 

Last 2 years though, have tested them to the core. Reasons known to him, Shah has been keeping a low profile. Also, he has not worked on his transformation from Chanakya to a mass leader. If he has to follow the footsteps of his guru NaMo, then he has to take lessons, how Modi traversed from an ordinary Karyakarta to a Statesman. NaMo not only worked on his communication, oratory skills, controlled aggression but also changed his personality and mass image. Shah will have to quickly adopt this change to make an imprint on the minds of people.

Yogi was a surprise choice to the post of the CM of Uttar Pradesh but has taken control of this largest state. 2022 will prove whether the leader who looked promising is ever lasting too. With SP/BSP geared up, aura of NaMo having reached saturation point, it will be Yogi who has to prove his mettle. The hurdle for Yogi is his image. Getting acceptability beyond UP will restrict his rise. With media and elite tied to secular India, it will be interesting to see how Yogi overcomes the challenge or remains content with Uttar Pradesh.

Fadnavis started with a bang, winning every nook and corner of the state to become poster boy of Maharashtra in no time. Out of the blue, The Sena dumped him and his struggles have just begun. With no visibility of MVA failing due to internal conflict, it will take the Nagpur strongman to go beyond mathematics of MVA, re-establish himself and cast himself into a mass leader. His political failure in Maharashtra will curtail his national ambitions. Historically any leader from Maharashtra has failed to rise in Delhi. Except for a short stint of late Yashwantrao Chavan who was Deputy Prime Minister in miserable Charan Singh government and been there but not crowned Sharad Pawar.

Shivraj Singh Chouhan, seems to have lost the race and may remain content in beautiful city of Bhopal.

All these leaders need brand BJP and cult of Modi for their respective growth.

Here lies the difference of Sarma. The possessed politician not only walked out of Congress but ended up in RSS headquarters too! Having no connect with the Sangh Parivar(his brother’s education was supported by RSS though), the man single handedly established himself in the corridors of Nagpur as well as those in power in Delhi. Sarma could demand CM role even after Sonowal had fared well(Not the BJP culture). The demand comes from the confidence of credibility in NEDA. The BJP can not ignore his control over the North-East. He has the potential to walk out of the party and still fare well. But the wise man will not do so. He will first improve his grip on North-East and will test his aura in non Hindi adjoining states of the NE. The quick learner in him will ensure good administration, good books of RSS and image building. Acceptance in Delhi is a long way to go, and nothing is easy. He too will have to improve his connect outside NE and oratory skills acceptable all over India, but his path has lesser thorns than the others at least in his own kingdom.

It will be intriguing to see how these leaders hold their forte and rise beyond their own potential to make a mark in national politics and the party. The people of nation obviously will choose and have the last laugh. 

                         “ये जनता सब जानती है।”

Disclaimer: The article merely touches upon potential of future leaders of the BJP and their standing in their own party and does not intend to compare them with any other political party and its leaders. All the statements above are an expression of an avid political observer only.

 Image Courtesy: Internet Media

Historical Elections- Assembly 2021

बेगानी शादी मे अब्दुल्ला दिवाना ! 

That’s what RaGa and Congress party will be doing tonight.

मै तो रस्ते से जा रहा था.. 

BJP will claim they never expected to win Bengal and wanted to improve 2016 tally, but in reality are deeply hurt by the harsh defeat.

तेरी ऊँगली पकड़ के चला..

AIADMK will be missing Amma Jayalalithaa but might be happy with it’s performance to stop the return of Chinnamma.

साला मैं तो साहब बन गया अरे..

Pinnari Vijayan is back and that too decimating it’s long distance partner (relation) Congress in Kerala. 

रूठ के हम से कहीं जब चले जाओगे तुम

Sarbanand Sonowal shall keep hoping that Hemanta Biswa and the Party let’s him to continue him in CM seat.

जो जीता वही सिकंदर and Mamatha walked (with fractured leg but not the mandate) victorious to prove that it was all about खेला होबे.

However, We need to understand the elections of South and Bengal historically. They were always about  मां, माटी, मानुष. Unless and untill BJP brings in local stalwart, it is going to be difficult for them to penetrate the local mindset. 

Bengal for that matter has generally persisted with the incumbent government for last 40 years and it shall take charisma of a new leader to uproot Mamata from the saddle. Till then Bengal may remain happy with the grumpy leader but won’t let any outsider to rule.

TN was due for change of guard especially after the loss of Amma and it will take Kalaignar’s son Stalin to put in huge efforts to prove his potential to govern. Chinnamma shall remain content with results and wait for right moment to grab the opportunity of discontent within AIADMK.

Assam voting in predictable manner proved hold of NDA in NEDA and looks set for status quo till 2024 Central elections.

With all parties finding its pound of flesh across different states, the biggest looser is Congress and RaGa. With no introspection, they will continue its agenda of राजा का बेटा राजा..

Hopefully the EVMs are accepted across the cult of the society and we put all those discussions to rest, period.

The COVID factor also played an important role in the elections. With sheer pressure from the people, it was bound that NaMo had to take a backseat from the rallies and BJP shall feel lucky that these were not national elections.

Never to forget, it’s victory of democracy and during this pandemic, the people came out of their homes to vote for the popular government. They have taken the risk of Covid-19 for their future, now it’s turn of the political parties to improve people’s present at least !

Disclaimer: The above article is a personal observation of the electoral verdict and does not intent to comment on the DOs and DONTs of the political parties.

Image Courtesy: Times of India