Elections 2019 : A journey into electoral evolution

Circa 1984, India was led by a Prime Minister who had operation ‘Blue Star’ behind her, opposition decimated after post emergency era of dark days and the country had found its own Iron Lady in invincible Indira Gandhi. However on a tragic 31st October 1984, all of a sudden India had its youngest Prime Minister in Rajiv Gandhi at the helm as his mother lost her life to her security guards in an unfortunate event shocking the country and rest of the world.

Young India of 37 years with a Prime Minister almost same as its age and mandate of 400+ Lok Sabha seats, no tall opposition leader in Parliament and close friends like Arun Nehru, Arun Singh and Amitabh around, Rajiv Gandhi had conquered to rule for a long time to come.

Nothing is permanent in politics and sometimes your right hand men can become your bête noire and Rajiv Gandhi realised it soon with Bofors getting unearthed and VP Singh posed enough challenge to wrest power from Congress in 1989 with BJP’s support. The elections of 1989 (rather by-poll of Allahabad in 1988 where VP Singh won as JanMorcha/Independent candidate) was the beginning of downfall of Congress as a National Party (which is still continued). However, the country neither fully decimated Congress nor chose BJP as its alternative.

VP Singh had his biggest moment and opportunity to make a difference to Indian Politics, only to fizzle it out in Mandal Commission implementation and big challenge posed by BJP with Ram Mandir movement.  

1991 and BJP had sensed its glory but Sriperumbudur had something else in store and India lost Rajiv Gandhi. Sympathy wave post Rajiv Gandhi saw P.V.Narasimha Rao getting coronated and India got its one of most policy driven Prime Ministers of all times. Not all administrators are mass leaders and country gave a jumbled and fractured mandate ousting Rao to give mantle to Atalji for 13 days and after experiments of Devegowda and Gujral had him at the helm though for short tenure of 13 months. These 13 months gave opposition parties a roadmap for future arm twisting coalition politics of the country (which probably holds true, even today) and Atalji bounced back for full term till 2004.

India Shining through a well-handled coalition could not stop Atalji from losing the battle of 2004 to a Prime Minister who for 10 years was more known for his silence and inability to control corruption. The able economist got entangled in coalition politics till 2014 which saw state level parties dictating at National Level, dynasties built in many states, nepotism as a big Normal and image of Manmohan Singh completely tarnished.

NaMo wave of 2014 helped India come out of coalition compulsions for the first time in 30 years and we had a decisive leader who was not afraid to take decisions as an administrator and not much worried about coalition equations. Having a clear mandate helps in putting the agenda for a ruling party though there always would be arguments and counter reactions for the decisions taken and as they say each coin has two sides.

2014 was the first election after almost 25 years of 1989 elections, where country accepted and thought of BJP as a Pan-India alternative to Congress.

With inability to take head on with NaMo, on one side is RaGa, representing dynasty and confirming inability of Congress to come out of the family cocoon, the other side is filled with potential prime ministers whom probably many Indians aren’t even aware of and then a possible coup of big coalition making battle of 2019 quite intriguing.

The narrative getting built in last few months makes no good for the country. Temple Run, Janaeu and Hinduism are getting confused with unwarranted aggression and unclear agenda. Calling the other guy bad names doesn’t get a good name for you. RaGa has to understand this. The battle is for the role of Prime Minister and unless he builds a positive framework, provides vision and roadmap howsoever he shouts unless he provides an alternative, it’s of no use. Rafale is no Bofors and 24*7 calling foul sounds repetitive. It seems the advisors of the scion are misguiding and Congress is getting into a trap of focusing on only person NaMo. The history suggests, whenever Modi is cornered, he has become more powerful.

The so called Third or United Front presents a gloomier picture than what any other alternative provides. The coalition is getting formed without any agenda and is more of a mathematical calculation than ideological rejuvenation. Coalition governments have repeatedly failed when Charansinghs, Devegowdas, Gujrals and Chandrashekhars ruled as the agenda was lost in satisfying the partners rather than the welfare of electorate and goodwill of the people.

With Hindi heartland under question, Modi will face tough home turf test and will need a big boost from untested territories of Bengal and Deep South. Unless NaMo overcomes the mathematics and coalition compulsions, the battle of 2019 is no cakewalk for NDA. However, understanding NaMo-Shah duo, they will not easily and meekly let go the national advantage with few foes coming together.

Indian Politics has come a long way since 1984 and is still evolving. The democracies world over are run on the principles of equal opportunities and ‘Country First’ ideology. Two Party democracies or ideological coalitions have immensely benefitted such nations as either of the side is correct for the electorate. With no such option available and multi-party mathematical coalitions being the only order of the day in India, one hopes, we as citizen of this beautiful nation choose leaders and parties who have long term goals for the betterment of the motherland and are not run for satisfying the personal greed and agenda.

Whosoever becomes the Prime Minister in 2019 has to provide a central, acceptable and global leadership irrespective of the party and state level compulsions because the world is watching us and the opportunities to rule the world aren’t offered time and again.

P.S. The blog is primarily written as an individual observation of Indian elections and politics and does not intend to judge or influence individual opinion of the readers.

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-       Jayawant