Undercurrent, Hype and Wave are three primary components which
decide the fate of any election and Indians are no exception to this thumb
rule.
The most dicey or uncertain factor is undercurrent which no
Political Pundit, Established media or common man can predict and usually ends up biting the ballet.
US elections decimated dreams of a potential President when an
undercurrent overpowered the hype to bring in a President, whom even his own
party had not envisioned to crown the glory in historic Presidential battle for
the 45th President.
Recent Ukraine elections handed over the mantle of leading the
nation to a comedian whose only political experience was an on-screen role
of President to win in an election which could be termed as landslide victory.
We need to look into past few elections (post Indira Gandhi) to
understand how we have brought in Governments in last 30 years to make us realize
the impact of verdict we prefer and have produced.
Rajeev Gandhi rode a wave of sympathy in 1984 to make opposition
parties sit in corner of the parliament. It was a complete one man (rather
woman-Indira Gandhi) show for the novice politician making many opponents go
into oblivion.
Elections of 1999 made Ataljee, premier of the nation riding on
the wave of Kargil war victory and kind of good governance he offered during
his 13 month tenure in 1996. The vote was also against antiestablishment of
previous miniature governments and the scandals of corruption which had marred
the Congress Party.
The miniature governments of VP Singh, Devegowda, IK Gujral were
more of mathematical ellipse rather than governance with none of these leaders
in sync with sentiments of aam admi and ultimately paved way for Ataljee rule.
1999 to 2004 witnessed corruption free government and NDA was banking on the good image of the coveted
leader and socio-economic initiatives of the Prime Minister. The goodwill
generated forced the NDA government to advance Loksabha elections and face the
electorate with ‘India Shining’ slogan. The bubble of the hype went haywire
against the undercurrent of anti establishment that saw MMS rule the nation for
next 10 years.
2014 was a real political wave of a leader and strong
undercurrent against the MMS Government. The youth found an icon in 60+ Modi
and after years of political turbulence, India voted for one party majority.
The next five years have seen Modi extending his appeal beyond Hindi belt to
establish himself as a Pan-India leader.
Modi’s persona has brought in all single/double digit (number of
seats) worth relevant leaders to come mathematically together to pose a battle.
With grand old party trying to make inroads after 2014 debacle, the media is
neither able to dismiss nor create any hype for them.
Undercurrent usually tends to be against the establishment to
puncture the bubble of invincibility. However for the first time in many years,
the government seems to be inching with an undercurrent in favour of
them.
The undercurrent cannot be created or estimated by media on the
lines of wave or a hype. The undercurrent doesn’t come from Lutyens Delhi. It
doesn’t come when a big Industrial house endorses a particular candidate. It cannot
be established in television debates. But it comes from the people on the street.
When a common rickshawala is happy with the condition of roads and tells you
his income has improved as he covers more distance than before. Your Istriwala (iron)
doesn’t like to watch movies of the superheroes on pretext of them not uttering
a word when Pulwama happened or when you hear an unknown entity in the crowd
talking about improved way of life on account of digitalization.
The common man has already gone past of hardships (if any) of
Demonetization, GST and is looking forward for improved India.
The political campaign this time is making a narrative of
nationalism on one side and combination of caste, religion, dynasty and
mathematics of coalition on other side.
One thing is for sure, the elections of 2019 will not be decided
by any hype or wave but it is that underestimated undercurrent in favor of
Government or against it, will decide the fate of 21st century New India.
Disclaimer: The opinion shared on the blog is personal view of
the author and does not reflect upon any political ideology in favor or against
any political outfit.
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Image Courtesy: esakal
- Jayawant
